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本文摘要:Levels of debt in emerging markets continue to rise and are becoming a source of “significant concern”, the Institute of International Finance warned on Wednesday. 周三,国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)警告,新兴市场债务水平之后上升,正在沦为引起“相当严重忧虑”的众多源头。


Levels of debt in emerging markets continue to rise and are becoming a source of “significant concern”, the Institute of International Finance warned on Wednesday. 周三,国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)警告,新兴市场债务水平之后上升,正在沦为引起“相当严重忧虑”的众多源头。Total government, household, financial sector and corporate debt in emerging markets rose $1.6tn last year to $62tn, or more than 210 per cent of gross domestic product, according to the IIF, which represents global banks and other financial institutions. 国际金融协会是一家代表全球银行和其他金融机构的的组织,该的组织称之为,去年新兴市场政府、家庭、金融部门和企业债务总额上升了1.6万亿美元至62万亿美元,是其国内生产总值(GDP)的2.1倍以上。It happened even as developed markets reduced their overall debt by an estimated $12tn last year, to about $175tn. 与此同时,据估计去年繁盛市场总体债务却增加了12万亿美元,至约175万亿美元。

“Total debt in EMs is high and getting higher,” said Hung Tran, the IIF’s executive managing director. “This will inhibit the ability to borrow to support growth, and the need to delever in the future will be a strong headwind to future growth.” “新兴市场总的债务水平极高,而且正在之后增高。”国际金融协会继续执行总裁洪川(Hung Tran)回应。“这种状况将不会诱导新兴市场通过借债反对经济快速增长的能力,而未来去杠杆的必要性也将沦为妨碍未来快速增长的众多不利因素。” Mr Tran said the IIF’s figures were consistent with those of the Bank for International Settlements, which said recently that dollar-denominated lending to EMs had peaked in the middle of last year and subsequently fallen for the first time since the global financial crisis. 洪川回应,国际金融协会的数据与国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据完全一致。

最近,国际清算银行的数据表明,派发给新兴市场的以美元计价的贷款在去年年中超过峰值,并在随后经常出现全球金融危机以来的首次下降。The BIS, the central bank of central banks, warned of a vicious circle of deleveraging, financial market turmoil and a global economic downturn. 作为“央行的央行”的国际清算银行就去杠杆、金融市场动荡不安和全球经济上行的恶性循环收到了警告。“Many non-financial corporations in emerging markets and especially in China have paid down their foreign currency debts so the BIS is correct,” said Mr Tran. “But they have increased their local currency debts by more than the amount they have paid down so net on net the stock of debt continues to increase everywhere, particularly in China.” 洪川回应:“在新兴市场、特别是在是中国,许多非金融企业已偿还债务了外汇债务。



” Companies in developed markets reduced their level of debt to GDP by 0.4 percentage points during 2015 to 87.4 per cent, the IIF’s figures show, while those in emerging markets added 6.7 points to reach 101.3 per cent of GDP. The IIF’s figures are for 19 emerging markets; in those countries taken together, corporate debt rose more than $1.9tn in 2015, to more than $25tn. 国际金融协会的数据表明,2015年期间繁盛市场企业债务与GDP之比减少了0.4个百分点,降到87.4%。与此同时,新兴市场企业债务与GDP之比却减少了6.7个百分点,超过101.3%。国际金融协会的数据涵括了19个新兴市场国家,这些国家加总来看,2015年它们的企业债务上升了逾1.9万亿美元,超过逾25万亿美元。

The IIF warned that emerging market borrowers face a particularly heavy period of bond and loan maturities this year and in the subsequent four years. Including governments, households, the financial sector and non-financial sector, about $730bn in bonds and loans will come due between April and December this year, rising to more than $900bn next year, according to the IIF. 国际金融协会警告,今年和今后四年,新兴市场的借款人面对一段债券和贷款届满的最为密集的时期。根据该机构的数据,还包括政府、家庭、金融部门和非金融部门在内,约7300亿美元的债券和贷款将不会在今年4月和12月之间届满,这一数字明年不会上升至逾9000亿美元。Most of the maturities are in the non-financial corporate sector (see chart). 这些届满债务中的大多数来自非金融企业部门(闻图表)。

“This is a challenge for many EM corporates,” said Mr Tran. “If we continue to see the current picture of a strong dollar, low commodity prices, slow growth and rising US interest rates, it will be very tough for many companies to raise the necessary refinancing.” 洪川回应:“这是许多新兴市场企业面对的众多挑战。如果当前这种强势美元、较低大宗商品价格、快速增长下滑和美国利率上升的局面持续下去,许多企业将较难展开适当的再融资。” He said this was reflected in the low rate of bond and loan issuance this year, which is running at about 35 per cent less than it was this time in 2015. 他说道,今年债券发售和贷款派发下滑就能体现出有这一点——比2015年同期较低了35%左右。

“The level of non-performing bank loans has been rising and will probably keep rising, and we think the risk and incidence of default by corporates will increase this year,” he said. 他说道:“不当银行贷款的水平仍然在上升,或许还不会之后上升。我们指出,今年企业债权人的风险和发生率将不会增高。